May calls general election 8th June...

National/Global discussions etc

Moderator: moderator

May calls general election 8th June...

Postby @DavidIons » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:31 am

I didn't see that coming....
Looks like an increased Conservative majority is on the cards.
@DavidIons
Community Representative
Community Representative
 
Posts: 623
Joined: Tue May 13, 2014 12:05 pm

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby musicalteapot » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:03 pm

I suspect you are right, but I can't see myself voting for Mr Raab after he ignored his constituency Brexit vote.
Anyone with a spine running?
musicalteapot
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 911
Joined: Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:06 am

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby Lewy » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:38 pm

But of course there are issues other than just Brexit to consider at the election although I'm sure many of them will be ignored.

The Tories may well get an increased majority at the election but having more Tory MPs doesn't necessarily mean there will be more Tory MPs who support May's views on Brexit. Bearing in mind there was only a very small majority in favour of us leaving Europe in the referendum I think the PM is being totally unrealistic if she thinks she will end up with a significant majority in favour in Parliament.
Lewy
Veteran Contributor Level 1
Veteran Contributor Level 1
 
Posts: 479
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:20 pm

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby Al D » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:49 am

I spoke to a Tory Remainer who said she'll vote Conservative because 'May will get us the best deal' yesterday.

The PM has said the election will be about Brexit, and a bigger majority will be a mandate for a harder Brexit.

Esher and Walton is an unusual constituency as it voted to Remain but the local MP is the biggest Leaver in the Commons.

Despite this, Raab is due to win comfortably because Tory Remainers won't vote Lib Dem.

Prediction: Conservative landslide followed by a hard Brexit with the UK leaving the single market
Al D
Veteran Contributor Level 3
Veteran Contributor Level 3
 
Posts: 604
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 10:55 am

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby magnolia » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:21 am

A great pity and a great mistake that Corbyn has rejected a progressive alliance.

This would have been a way forward.
magnolia
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 2810
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 7:58 am

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby Waltonwatcher » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:28 pm

I wouldn't predict a landslide here. Even with a 9% swing Tories might gain only 30 seats according to certain websites. Current polls suggest 9-23% lead for Tories. They may lose some seats in London? Could happen as that area is heavy remain.

Labours big issues.
1. Corbyn! Many polls comparing his leadership compared to May are less than pretty. He is seen as a weak leader. Sure he has a hardcore fan base but that is not the same as a nation voting for you.
2. Labour seem to agree to leave EU. So Remainers have less reason to vote for him? What will he offer that the Tories don't already offer?
3. A divided party whose MPs dislike Corbyn. Albeit Corbyn will have a chance to replace many MP's here. With a possible return for Ed Ball. Ed could well run for leader if he gets in.
3. Even if they do come close it would mean a coalition with SNP and every party under the Sun. SNP would demand a vote on independence. Unlikely.
4. Huge poll lead to claw back in 7 weeks. When was last time a poll put Labour within 8 points?
5. A press that will almost certainly use this as a chance to ditch Corbyn. Will any paper back him? Mirror maybe? Guardian certainly not given some of their stories lately. Sun will back Tories. Times and Telegraph too.

Overall if Labour lose that could be good for them. A chance to remove Corbyn and restore some kind of opposition here. Corbyn is simply not converting the average voter, the papers or his own MPs. He shouldn't have to fight all to get people to back him.

See what happens. I think the Tory lead won't be as big as many think.
Waltonwatcher
Contributor Level 3
Contributor Level 3
 
Posts: 391
Joined: Wed Mar 11, 2015 1:30 pm

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby Tim » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:42 pm

musicalteapot wrote:I suspect you are right, but I can't see myself voting for Mr Raab after he ignored his constituency Brexit vote.
Anyone with a spine running?

Actually it must take some spine to vote against the wishes of your constituents.

He was in a no-win situation - he's criticised for not voting with his constituents, but if he'd voted remain, he'd have been criticised for not voting with his conscience.

As for the forthcoming elections, as we are facing Brexit, isn't it better to have people who see Brexit as beneficial working towards it, rather than a bunch of people who really don't want it to happen who will happily turn around and say "told you so" when they fail to get as good a deal as they might if their hearts had been in it.

I voted remain, but if we're out we need to make as good a job as possible of it so we need people who want to make it work.

I don't think May's call for an election is so much about increasing the Tory majority as increasing her support from her own backbenchers. They will be going into the election this time knowing Brexit is on its way and the government will have to see it through. If they really want nothing to do with it they should stand down as I'm sure a few will.

I can also see the sense in the government that sees through Brexit remaining in office for the future immediately following it. This should help negotiations with the remaining EU states as they will know who they will be dealing with immediately after.
There are two paths you can go by, but in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on
User avatar
Tim
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:23 pm

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby Tim » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:47 pm

Waltonwatcher wrote:See what happens. I think the Tory lead won't be as big as many think.

Votes wise, I agree. It's an excellent time to be a Lib Dem candidate. Back where they are most comfortable, able to make all sorts of good sounding promised without running the risk of being in a position of having to carry them out :)
There are two paths you can go by, but in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on
User avatar
Tim
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:23 pm

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby Waltonwatcher » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:52 pm

Not so sure about Lib Dems. Most polls have them around 11-12% mark. How that equates to seats is another matter. 10-12 seats? Remember they used to poll 20%+

Latest You gov poll has Tories on 48%, Labour 24% LD 12% and UKIP 7%. It's the biggest Tory Poll lead for nearly 10 years. They are comparing it to when Tony Blair got into Power. He had a near 29% lead in polls at start of Election campaign. The majority of recent polls had Tories with a 16-18% lead.

This is probably more down to Labour than anything the Tories have done. May certainly has made an impact with people comparing her to Thatcher. Strong leader?

I think main reason for early election is so the negotiations are not at a point where country is planning an election.

See what happens I guess. 7 weeks is a long time in politics.
Waltonwatcher
Contributor Level 3
Contributor Level 3
 
Posts: 391
Joined: Wed Mar 11, 2015 1:30 pm

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby magnolia » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:54 pm

magnolia
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 2810
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 7:58 am

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby magnolia » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:38 am

Andrew Davis announced as Lib Dem candidate to challenge Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton and prevent a hard Brexit.



http://elmbridgelibdems.org.uk/andrew-d ... rd-brexit/
magnolia
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 2810
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 7:58 am

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby @DavidIons » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:11 am

The UKIP directive issued yesterday is not to stand against any MP that Voted for Brexit. Which makes sense. Country before party. However, by not fielding a candidate does that give the impression of UKIP in decline....?

Where does that leave me? I can't vote Labour because I strongly disagree with their defence policy, Lib Dem just won't accept the referendum result wanting the softest Brexit possible and May announces she will not cut the overseas aid budget (restrict to emergency humanitarian aid).

I guess I will have to accept the aid spend and go with a vote for Dominic.
@DavidIons
Community Representative
Community Representative
 
Posts: 623
Joined: Tue May 13, 2014 12:05 pm

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby magnolia » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:39 am

@DavidIons wrote:The UKIP directive issued yesterday is not to stand against any MP that Voted for Brexit. Which makes sense. Country before party. However, by not fielding a candidate does that give the impression of UKIP in decline....?

Where does that leave me? I can't vote Labour because I strongly disagree with their defence policy, Lib Dem just won't accept the referendum result wanting the softest Brexit possible and May announces she will not cut the overseas aid budget (restrict to emergency humanitarian aid).

I guess I will have to accept the aid spend and go with a vote for Dominic.


A 'home from home', David Ions.
magnolia
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 2810
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 7:58 am

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby musicalteapot » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:14 pm

Tim wrote:He was in a no-win situation - he's criticised for not voting with his constituents, but if he'd voted remain, he'd have been criticised for not voting with his conscience.


I'm not sure about that. The most fundamental rule of politics is that you are elected by your constituents. If your constituents are asked for their opinion it seems pretty ungrateful not to represent what they decided, even if it is opposed to your own personal opinion. His decision was therefore party line vs constituents and he chose to go with the party line. I doubt it will affect his very safe seat, but personally I'd like an MP who had enough respect for their constituents to represent their views.

That said I also think we need to get away from the absurd notion that Politicians changing their opinion or position is somehow hypocritical and negative. Changing opinion reflects an ability to learn, process and react.
musicalteapot
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 911
Joined: Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:06 am

Re: May calls general election 8th June...

Postby colinmac » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:33 pm

So you think Raab should of abided by the vote as determined by his constituents and yet happy for the lib/dooms to ignore the way the vote went overall.
colinmac
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
Walton-on-Thames.org Senior Contributor
 
Posts: 1081
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 1:32 pm

Next

Return to General discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot] and 10 guests